WATER QUALITY MODELING OF ALTERNATIVE AGRICULTURAL SCENARIOS IN THE U.S. CORN BELT1

ABSTRACT: Simulated water quality resulting from three alternative future land‐use scenarios for two agricultural watersheds in central Iowa was compared to water quality under current and historic land use/land cover to explore both the potential water quality impact of perpetuating current trends and potential benefits of major changes in agricultural practices in the U.S. Corn Belt. The Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was applied to evaluate the effect of management practices on surface water discharge and annual loads of sediment and nitrate in these watersheds. The agricultural practices comprising Scenario 1, which assumes perpetuation of current trends (conversion to conservation tillage, increase in farm size and land in production, use of currently‐employed Best Management Practices (BMPs)) result in simulated increased export of nitrate and decreased export of sediment relative to the present. However, simulations indicate that the substantial changes in agricultural practices envisioned in Scenarios 2 and 3 (conversion to conservation tillage, strip intercropping, rotational grazing, conservation set‐asides and greatly extended use of best management practices (BMPs) such as riparian buffers, engineered wetlands, grassed waterways, filter strips and field borders) could potentially reduce current loadings of sediment by 37 to 67 percent and nutrients by 54 to 75 percent. Results from the study indicate that major improvements in water quality in these agricultural watersheds could be achieved if such environmentally‐targeted agricultural practices were employed. Traditional approaches to water quality improvement through application of traditional BMPs will result in little or no change in nutrient export and minor decreases in sediment export from Corn Belt watersheds.     

PRECIPITATION CHANGES FROM 1956 TO 1996 ON THE WALNUT GULCH EXPERIMENTAL WATERSHED1

ABSTRACT: The climate of Southern Arizona is dominated by summer precipitation, which accounts for over 60 percent of the annual total. Summer and non‐summer precipitation data from the USDA‐ARS Walnut Gulch Experimental Watershed are analyzed to identify trends in precipitation characteristics from 1956 to 1996. During this period, annual precipitation increased. The annual precipitation increase can be attributed to an increase in precipitation during non‐summer months, and is paralleled by an increase in the proportion of annual precipitation contributed during non‐summer months. This finding is consistent with previously reported increases in non‐summer precipitation in the southwestern United States. Detailed event data were analyzed to provide insight into the characteristics of precipitation events during this time period. Precipitation event data were characterized based on the number of events, event precipitation amount, 30‐minute event intensity, and event duration. The trend in non‐summer precipitation appears to be a result of increased event frequency since the number of events increased during nonsummer months, although the average amount per event, average event intensity, and average event duration did not. During the summer “monsoon” season, the frequency of recorded precipitation events increased but the average precipitation amount per event decreased. Knowledge of precipitation trends and the characteristics of events that make up a precipitation time series is a critical first step in understanding and managing water resources in semiarid ecosystems.     

A RIFFLE STABILITY INDEX TO EVALUATE SEDIMENT LOADING TO STREAMS1

ABSTRACT: Riffles in moderately entrenched stream reaches with gradients of 2 percent to 4 percent that have received excessive sediment from upstream have a distinctly different and higher proportion of smaller mobile particles than riffles in systems that are in dynamic equilibrium. The mobile fraction on the riffle can be estimated by comparing the relative abundance of various particle sizes present on the riffle with the dominant large particles on an adjacent bar. Riffle particles smaller than the dominant large particles on the bar are interpreted as mobile. The mobile percentile of particles on the riffle is termed “Riffle Stability Index” (RSI) and provides a useful estimate of the degree of increased sediment supply to riffles in mountain streams. The RSI addresses situations in which increases in gravel bedload from headwaters activities is depositing material on riffles and filling pools, and it reflects qualitative differences between reference and managed watersheds. The RSI correlates well with other measures of stream channel physical condition, such as V and the results of fish habitat surveys. Thus, it can be used as an indicator of stream reach and watershed condition and also of aquatic habitat quality.     

ACCURACY AND RELIABILITY OF NUMERICAL RIVER MODELS1

ABSTRACT: Over the last 20 years, our possibilities to model river flows numerically have increased enormously. In this paper, the question is addressed whether a more sophisticated model is always better than a simpler one. Increased detail, both in finer resolution and in physical processes taken into account, has its price in more computer time, higher data need, and perhaps more unknown coefficients to be calibrated. Moreover, uncertainty in actual physical conditions (e.g., bottom roughness), inflow and parameters remains, which may dominate the uncertainty of the results. Also, the questions asked by a decision maker may not always be very precise. For a schematic but relevant example, we show that a better model does not necessarily give more reliable results because some of the basic uncertainties remain. It is concluded that we should use the simplest model that will answer the question as to the accuracy needed, taking into account uncertainties in the data     

Modeling the relationships between land use and land cover on private lands in the Upper Midwest, USA

This paper presents an approach to modeling land-cover change as a function of land-use change. We argue that, in order to model the link between socio-economic change and changes in forest cover in a region that is experiencing residential and recreational development and agricultural abandonment, land-use and land-cover change need to be represented as separate processes. Forest-cover change is represented here using two transition probabilities that were calculated from Landsat imagery and that, taken together, describe a Markov transition matrix between forest and non-forest over a 10-year period. Using a three-date land-use data set, compiled and interpreted from digitized parcel boundaries, and scanned aerial photography for 136 sites (c. 2500 ha) sampled from the Upper Midwest, USA, we test functional relationships between forest-cover transition probabilities, standardized to represent changes over a decade, and land-use conditions and changes within sample sites. Regression models indicated that about 60% of the variation in the average forest-cover transition probabilities (i.e. from forest to non-forest and vice versa) can be predicted using three variables: amount of agricultural land use in a site; amount of developed land use; and the amount of area increasing in development. In further analysis, time lags were evaluated, showing that agricultural abandonment had a relatively strong time-lag effect but development did not. We demonstrate an approach to using forest-cover transition probabilities to develop spatially-constrained simulations of forest-cover change. Because the simulations are based on transition probabilities that are indexed to a particular time and place, the simulations are improved over previous applications of Markov transition models. This modeling approach can be used to predict forest-cover changes as a result of socio-economic change, by linking to models that predict land-use change on the basis of exogenous human-induced drivers.     

Defining contamination limits with pneumatic hammer soil probes

There have been more than 100,000 confirmed releases of petroleum from underground storage tanks (USTs) in the United States and its territories. The 10,000-gallon spill and cleanup of unleaded gasoline, detailed in this article, that occurred from 1988 to 1990 on Cape Cod, Massachusetts, illustrates the author's argument that electric pneumatic-hammer soil probes are the fastest, most convenient, and least costly way of performing the soil-gas surveys needed to locate spilled petroleum product, evaluate vapor intrusion into basements, and determine the extent of groundwater contamination for remediation purposes. Current state soil-gas requirements are also included.     

Book reviews

Environment Systems and Decisions -     

The role of facet importance as a moderator in job satisfaction processes

Two studies were designed to test hypotheses derived from Locke's (1969, 1976, 1984) model of job satisfaction. Consistent with the model, both studies found that perceived have-want discrepancy scores were powerful predictors of facet job satisfaction. In addition, facet importance tended to moderate this relationship in the manner predicted by Locke. Workers who viewed a job facet as having high importance were more satisfied with a small perceived have-want discrepancy and more dissatisfied with a large discrepancy than workers who viewed the facet as having low importance. Finally, as expected, facet importance failed to moderate the relationship between facet satisfaction and overall job satisfaction. This finding supports Locke's proposition that facet satisfaction scores are ‘implicitly weighted’ by facet importance. Implications and directions for future research are discussed.